Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

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Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by B@TMAN on Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:53 pm

Table of Contents


1. Recap: Intro to Probability & How Does it Work?
2. Odds of opening with Semi-Limited card and Limited card.
3. How Deck Searchers and Deck Thinners affect the odds?
4. The Case of the Kuribandit
5. Why i Love Heros in Terms of Probablity
6. Hysteric Sign is one of the Best Searchers in the Game

1. Recap: Intro to Probability & How Does it Work?
Probability is simply "How likely something is to happen" and using this, we can find the likelihood or percentage of that something happening.Concepts of probability have been around for thousands of years, but probability theory did not arise as a branch of mathematics until the mid-seventeenth century. You can use probability to find the odds of a coin toss being a certain result or finding the odds of a certain sum being rolled or even finding the odds of having a certain monster in your hand which i am going to explain today.

Probability is simply the formula:

we can use this formula to find the probability of something happening for anything from dice to cards to spinning a wheel. 

Probability application to YU-Gi-OH:
You can use probability in yugioh to find the odds for the following:


  • Odds of drawing a certain card
  • Odds of rolling a dice
  • Odds of getting a certain coin toss permutations which is the odds of something happen in any order.



Odds of Drawing a Certain Card:

cards in deckodds of drawing a card
1/402.5%
1/412.43%
1/422.38%
1/432.33%
1/442.27%
1/452.22%
1/462.17%
1/472.13%
1/482.08%
1/492.04%
1/502%
1/511.96%
1/521.92%
1/531.87%
1/541.85%
1/551.82%
1/561.79%
1/571.75%
1/581.72%
1/591.69%
1/60
1.67%

Does it matter how many cards i have in the deck?
Even though the percent difference is small, your odds aren't great to begin with hence why people think "the less cards in your deck, the better the odds" because your are decreasing the total number of cards in the deck and increase the odds of a better card.


(New Stuff is here)


2. Odds of opening with Semi-Limited card and Limited card.
Since konami likes to mess with stop powerful decks by limiting a card which affects a probability opening with it in the first hand. There are the odds of opening with at least 1 copy for unlimited,semi-limited and limited cards.

odds of opening with with 1 copypercent
unlimited6.7%
semi-limited4.5%
limited2.2%
As you can see the odds aren't great to being with but that reminds of me of certain cards to help these odds.
(Sebaston next paragraph please!)

3. How Deck Searchers and Deck Thinners affect the odds?
In case you Forgot what a deck searcher and deck thinner is :
Deck searcher allow you to well search your deck and Deck thinner refers to a card that reduces the number of cards in your Deck so you have a greater chance of drawing what you need (At the risk of Decking out faster, especially against mill Decks). Most Deck thinners are also searchers. In many cases, Deck Thinners also serve as easy Siders for Deck Siding. Examples of deck thinners include:

Armageddon Knight

Mathematician

Shaddoll Fusion

Foolish Burial

Sinister Shadow Games

Satellarknight Unukalhai

and so on......

As with Searchers, They let you not only let you get a card you want with its effect, but also allow you control probability because you are controlling what in your deck and whats left to draw which increases are you go through your deck.

4. The Case of the Kuribandit

Kuribandit effect made me ogle with numbers because:

Code:
During the End Phase, if this card was Normal Summoned this turn: You can Tribute this card; excavate the top 5 cards of your Deck, you can add 1 excavated Spell/Trap Card to your hand, also send the remaining cards to the Graveyard.

Example: Suppose i am using Dragon ruler Lightsworn where i have a certain ammount of cards and i summon kuribandit. Upon end phase,i use kuribandit's effect and try to use its effect while not moving Black Luster Soldier-Envoy of the Beginning from deck to grave.

probability change from 25-35 cards

cards in deck before kuribandit cards left in deck after kuribanditpercentage beforepercentage after
25204%5%
26213.8%4.76%
27223.7%4.54%
28233.57%4.34%
29243.4%4.2%
30253.3%4%
31263.2%3.8%
32273.125%3.7%
33283.03%3.57%
34292.94%3.4%
35302.9%3.3%
Do cards like Kuribandit help probability?
Yes because you increase your chances of in this case of drawing Black Luster Soldier hopefully on your next turn.

5.Why i Love Heros in Terms of Probablity
As you know Hero Decks have alot of Searchers. Why i love Heros in terms of probability is the amount of searchers. Like i said before, searchers let control whats left in your deck and Hero have a whole bunch of searchers.
Searchers for Heros:

Elemental Hero Shadow Mist


E-Emergency Call




Reinforcement of the Army

Almost 25% of a 40 card deck is just from 3 Searchers which i say is pretty good considering its only from 6 copies of spells and 3 copies of 1 monster.


6. Hysteric Sign is one of the Best Searchers in the Game.
Considering Harpies aren't even tier 2(depending on people's views), i still think Hysteric Sign is one of the best searchers considering its effect:




Code:
When this card is activated: Add 1 "Elegant Egotist" from your Deck orGraveyard to your hand. During the End Phase of the turn this card was sent from the field or hand to the Graveyard: Add up to 3 "Harpie" cards with different names from your Deck to your hand. You can only activate 1 "Hysteric Sign" effect per turn, and only once that turn.




So you get to add Elegant Egotist and if its destroyed you get 3 cards to add to your hand? Stop i am getting a chubby.
This means i can add 4 different cards and increase of drawing Tempest by if starting with 35 cards and starting my next turn with 30 by .4% from one card..... that's one hell of card.

Thanks for Reading. Hope you Enjoyed it!
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Re: Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by (All Stars) Kirito on Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:24 pm

wow just wow i didnt know any of these % exept 50 maybe cuz i was to lazy


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Re: Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by Socialgames NR.2 on Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:27 pm

I am very sorry to inform that also dragons have quite a bit of deck thinners,also,you didnt mention lightsworn,sure they dont have too much searchers,but all the cards,maybe one or two arent thinners.Dragons themselves have the Dragon Rulers,and white dragon wyverbursters,also hieratic dragons by tributing themselves they get thins of of their deck by special summoning normal dragons from deck.As for lightsworns,JD is a part of it and a big thinner,also some of the cards like minerva activate in the grave and thin you a card,so...Not saying that i hate it but it doesnt really seem complete,also needleworms nest.5 deck out of your card is a big part,also foolish burial,now whats good about burial is that you get to select the card.And now i see that the point is the percentage change that matters here,but i thought i would give you my thought.
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Re: Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by (All Stars) Kirito on Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:30 pm

the cards u should runnnnnnnnnnnn in lightsworms should be all able to thin u r deck and yes chaos dragons do have deck thinners since they have cards like white dragon foolish also all of their monsters require cards in grave so u have to use many deck thinners like the draw one discard one card i seem to have forgoten the name of


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Re: Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by WowThatsPrettySad on Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:27 pm

@Socialgames NR.2 wrote:I am very sorry to inform Before you try to be all fancy and that, try proofreading your comments. IE: Put spaces after your commas. that also dragons have quite a bit of deck thinners,also,you didnt mention lightsworn,sure they dont have too much searchers,but all the cards,maybe one or two arent thinners.Dragons themselves have the Dragon Rulers,and white dragon wyverbursters,also hieratic dragons by tributing themselves they get thins of of their deck by special summoning normal dragons from deck.As for lightsworns,JD is a part of it and a big thinner,also some of the cards like minerva activate in the grave and thin you a card,so...Not saying that i hate it but it doesnt really seem complete wtf are you trying to say? I don't think he is required to mention every single deck with a thinner or searcher,also needleworms nest.5 deck out of your card Pls proofread man.... is a big part,also foolish burial, your excessive incorrect use of the (,) is bothersome now whats good about burial is that you get to select the card. And now i see that the point is the percentage change that matters here,but i thought i would give you my thought. 
I have no clue what this dude is trying to say ^^


Why Don't You Just Take Your Opinion..... And Move It Somewhere Else

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Re: Probability for Beginners Article Part 2

Post by (All Stars) Kirito on Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:42 pm

wow the grammer nazi has apperared wat he is saying is there are decks tat have searchers and thinners


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